Bernstein’s April 14 report quantifies the sector’s breakout: Kalshi and Polymarket alone generated ~$60 billion in volume in the first months of 2026—already eclipsing all of 2025’s $51 billion total. Kalshi, controlling >90% of U.S. share, saw weekly volume leap from $100 million to >$3 billion YoY, rivaling AI-scale growth per Bank of America. Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani forecasts 2026 at $240 billion and a path to $1 trillion by 2030 via sustained 80% CAGR.
Key drivers are structural, not cyclical: post-2024 election momentum carried into 2025 via sports, crypto, and macro/political contracts; blockchain tokenization and crypto integration are unlocking liquidity and 24/7 settlement. Contract mix is shifting fast—sports currently >60% of volume, projected to halve by 2030 as institutions demand discrete exposure to economic, business, and political outcomes. Corporate and insurance hedging demand is explicitly flagged as the next growth leg.
Public-market proxies are clear: Robinhood’s year-old prediction hub already delivers $350 million ARR (30% of Kalshi volume) and is its fastest-growing business; Coinbase is the second leg. New entrants (DraftKings, Underdog, Robinhood’s own potential exchange) signal intensifying competition.
Regulatory friction is real—legal actions in 14 states, four pending congressional bills, and an open CFTC-state turf war over sports-betting authority and insider-trading concerns—but Bernstein views this as transient. Federal clarity from SEC/CFTC alignment is expected to confer legitimacy and accelerate institutional adoption, not derail the multi-year trajectory. The net result is the emergence of a new, liquid asset class for event-risk pricing that sits between derivatives, betting, and information markets.
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