Samsung’s preliminary Q1 2026 guidance confirms the AI memory supercycle is accelerating, not peaking. Operating profit is projected at 57.2 trillion won, an eightfold YoY surge and nearly triple the prior quarterly record, smashing LSEG SmartEstimate of 42.3 trillion won. Revenue is expected to hit 133 trillion won, +70% YoY. The beat is driven almost entirely by the Device Solutions division (memory chips), which already generated 57% of 2025 operating profit despite representing only 39% of revenue.
High-bandwidth memory (HBM) shortages have become acute, lifting both prices and volumes across the memory stack. Commodity DRAM/NAND prices are now projected to rise another 50%+ in Q2 with no near-term supply relief. Samsung has clawed back share in the HBM race after ceding early leadership to SK Hynix, validating its catch-up investments in advanced packaging and process technology.
The guidance reframes Samsung as a credible Big Tech-scale earnings machine rather than a laggard in the AI stack. However, a material risk overlay exists: ongoing Middle East conflict is already disrupting helium shipments critical to semiconductor fabrication. Counterpoint Research warns that a prolonged conflict “will lead to severe consequences” for both Samsung and SK Hynix. Full results are due later this month; today’s numbers already reset expectations higher for the full year.
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